Saturday, March 20, 2010

Forecast models hinting at first LARGE severe weather outbreak of 2010!!!

As I look out my window at the white-out conditions, I can't help but take to the models to search for even the slightest hint at future severe weather. Although it's nearly 2-weeks out, the models have been fairly consistently setting up a good ole fashion dryline chase out west. The warm sector stretches from TX all the way up to NE, with ample moisture and plenty of shear. This could be a significant outbreak, in terms of magnitude and size. It's still early, so I won't start comparing it to other outbreak days, YET. Here's the surface dewpoint and 500mb height chart from the 12z GFS:

We will be watching this VERY closely. Gooch says hi.

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